Covid stimulus, supply chain shocks, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have intensified inflation to a more persistent rate of 8.26%.  Many of these unique events have not been seen in prior business cycles.  It should come as no surprise we need to get supply and demand back in line and we expect the markets will continue to trade in a volatile manner on headline news.  The overall focus of the Federal Reserve is to restore price stability by getting inflation back down to 2%.  The Federal Reserve’s strategy is to raise interest rates to slow down our economy without forcing us into a recession. If the Fed projections are correct, the next cycle over the next two years should be a long robust recovery.


As of Friday, September 23 rd , the S&P and Nasdaq are down once again for the year just over 20% and 30% respectively.  Please note the chart below to document the average frequency and length of historical market corrections.  Historically, “Bear” down markets are shorter and more severe, and “Bull” up markets are longer and much more robust.  I am confident this cycle will pass once inflation is brought under control.

market declines corrections chart

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The proactive tactical allocations we made back in October 2021 (taking profits and reducing risk) and multiple changes made throughout 2022 have assisted in keeping your wealth intact.  Our models have performed relatively well, declining less than the markets. As of mid-summer, most of our models were down just under 10% which would be normal in any given year.  Unfortunately, this year is far from being a normal year.  We are confident in our proven long-term approach of maintaining cash reserves, income, and growth allocations based on your unique goals to ride out this most challenging market cycle.  In addition, we have, are, and will continue to manage risk.  As the market bottoms and we get to the midterm election, we plan to rebalance our portfolios accordingly.


Both Carson Group and Capital Group agreed that the year following the year of a midterm election saw an average annual return for the S&P 500 of 14.1% and 15.1% respectively, compared with 7.1% for all other years, which could be very good news for 2023.

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Experience has taught us that successful investing requires patience, discipline, and the ability to control one’s emotions.

Here are some of the best investment minds in history offering insight on timeless wealth-building and preservation principles:

“A market downturn doesn’t bother us.  It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.”
“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.”
“The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.”
“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”

John Bogle:

“Time is your friend.  Impulse is your enemy.”

Peter Lynch:

“Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate correction than lost in the correction themselves.”

Shelby Davis:

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.”

Benjamin Graham:

“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”

Brian I. Pultman

“Invest to meet goals, not to beat some arbitrary index.”

Please don’t hesitate to contact me or a valued member of our team to address any questions or concerns.

If your risk tolerance changes, life events occur, or investment objectives change, please inform us immediately.

Your total satisfaction is very important to me and my entire team.